Since everyone else is talking about it...

Here's some random excerpts from an email conversation I had about Flash/Silverlight/JavaFX:

The Java kernel sounds all fine and dandy, but it does not exist now and it won't be released until Java 7 (maybe, delays seem inevitable) and 3MB seems like a bit of a stretch for a first release if you look at Ethan Nicholas's blog (of course that's just speculation, I admit). On mobile devices I can concede that it will probably be pretty popular because of the popularity of JavaME.

The main problem is one of economics: JavaFX makes Sun either no money or makes it so indirectly that they can't significantly profit from its success. Apollo/Flex's success will directly and unambiguously profit Adobe because they charge for developer tools; same with Microsoft. It all comes down to incentives: whoever can become most profitable in a given market will make the best product. Client side Java does not profit Sun in a significant way, especially when compared to competitors. Now believe me, I am rooting for Java because I prefer all the open standards/open source/FREE stuff, but that is the only possible advantage for JavaFX at the moment. And even the cost argument for Java can be up for debate if you consider the opportunity cost of not using something like Flash or Silverlight. If I had the next week to decide what client platform I would use for a new webtop app (probably a good thing that I don't have such authority) I would look at Adobe or Microsoft much more seriously than Sun. In a year or two things could change, but I don't foresee any dramatic changes by Sun/the Java community that can't be matched or exceeded by the competition. If history is any guide (and it is so often) new features and innovation will come much faster from companies who can profit from their products.

I couldn't help but think about this some more from articles/blogs I keep seeing about JavaFX: Everyone keeps saying that it will deliver a "Flash-like experience", but Flash has been delivering that experience for years! If Java is just now catching up to where Flash was 3 years ago, who do you think will be ahead in another 3 years? Granted, you have to use ActionScript or whatever they use to program Flash, but if it's like JavaScript it can't be overwhelmingly difficult to learn pretty quickly. If one argues for the "unified development environment" that comes with Java, then I would have to point out that .NET, despite all its faults, is ONE environment that can be used to program pretty much everything that Microsoft has touched (which isn't everything, but a gigantic section of all sorts of markets)

I'm not arguing for .NET, but if I was running a business I would definitely have to consider it seriously unless it was clear that cross-platform considerations outweighed all other advantages - which is often not the case I think.

I would guess the "blasting" of JavaFX in the blogging community at large stems from the comparisons it keeps getting to Flash and Silverlight, which seems somewhat ridiculous from what I have seen.